WHY BASIC STRATEGY?
Again, it has been found to be mathematically the best decisions for the player to make if he is not counting cards. There are three situations that basic strategy helps improve the players overall chances:
- Win more by enhancing wins.
- Win more by cutting losses.
- Win more by making losers winners. (2)
It will be easier to understand these situations by going over an example of each.
WIN MORE BY ENHANCING WINS.
11 vs. Dealers up card 6. If you do not double down, but instead draw one card (which will give you 12 or more, and at which point you stand, you will
Win 61% of hands
Tie 8% of hands
Lose 31% of hands
For a net win of 30% of money bet. However, if you double down, your profit on the 30% net winners will be twice as much as it would be if you did not double. (At $1 per hand for 100 hands, you will win $30 by drawing and $60 by doubling.)
WIN MORE BY CUTTING LOSSES
A-6 vs. dealer 7. When the dealer has a 7 up, he will make the following totals for every hundred hands:
37% of the time he will make 17
37% of the time he will make 18-21
26% of the time he will bust
But if you draw to soft 17 versus the dealers 7, you will gain an additional 15 hands per 100 hands when this situation occurs. So, by standing you lose 37% of the time. And by drawing, you lose only 22% of the time. You gain 15% by drawing over standing.
WIN MORE BY REVERSING LOSERS
An example of this is when you have two 8’s versus the dealers up card of a 7. If you draw to 8-8, you have a
27% chance to win
6% chance to tie
67% chance to lose
This creates a net loss of 40%. But if you split 8-8, you have almost a 10% net win expectation on each hand for a 20% total net win expectation. Therefore, you have changed a 40% net loser into a 20% net winner, a swing of 60% by playing the hand accordingly to basic strategy.
READ THE REST OF THIS CHAPTER IN THE MEMBER SECTION OR PURCHASE THE PGI CARD COUNTING MANUAL!
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